OPEC has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month, postponing the resumption of suspended crude oil production plans.

On Monday, October 14th, OPEC released its monthly oil report. OPEC predicted that global oil demand will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day this year, a reduction of 106,000 barrels per day from previous expectations. The report stated that this revision is "mainly based on the actual data received and slightly lower-than-expected demand in certain regions."

However, even after three consecutive months of downgrades, OPEC's estimate of global oil demand remains more optimistic than Wall Street's expectations, at the top of the forecast range of Saudi Aramco. Bloomberg reported that OPEC's forecast is almost twice that of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In addition, despite OPEC's forecast showing a significant supply shortage of oil, OPEC still postponed the resumption of suspended crude oil production plans. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and its allies plan to gradually resume 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil production from December, two months later than initially planned. OPEC also plans to hold a meeting on December 1st to discuss production policies for 2025.

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OPEC's efforts to boost oil prices have been affected by countries such as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia producing more oil than their quotas.

After the release of the report, crude oil prices fell, with Brent and WTI crude oil dropping nearly 2%, now trading at $77.55 per barrel and $73.35 per barrel, respectively.

Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia's oil production exceeded quotas

Although conflicts in the Middle East have driven up crude oil prices, a price of $77 per barrel is still too low for some OPEC countries. OPEC's efforts to boost oil prices have been affected by countries such as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia failing to fulfill their production cut commitments.

OPEC's report shows that although Iraq's production in September was reduced by 155,000 barrels per day to 4.112 million barrels per day, close to the OPEC target of 4 million barrels per day allocated to it, it still exceeded the quota and failed to make the additional cuts promised for previous overproduction; Kazakhstan's oil production in September increased by 75,000 barrels per day to 1.545 million barrels per day, also failing to fulfill its commitment to reduce production. Russia's oil production in September decreased by 28,000 barrels per day but remained at about 9 million barrels per day, exceeding its quota limit.