Following the record export growth rate in August this year, the export growth rate in China slowed down in September.

At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on October 14, Lv Dalian, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistical Analysis Department, stated that in September, China's exports amounted to 2.17 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth rate.

Preliminary analysis suggests that this was mainly due to some short-term incidental factors, including extreme weather in September, recent global shipping disruptions, container shortages, and the anticipated contract negotiations for dockworkers on the East Coast of the United States, which led to adjustments in the shipping and logistics节奏 of enterprises. Data also shows that for some products, the export peak season, which was usually in the third quarter in previous years, has been advanced by more than a month this year. In addition, the high base of export scale in September last year has restricted the year-on-year growth rate in September this year. Overall, the slowdown in export growth rate in September is a normal short-term data fluctuation.

In addition to these short-term reasons, Feng Lin, director of the Research and Development Department of Orient Jincheng, pointed out that external demand has also shown a slowdown trend. Among them, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI index in September fell to 48.8%, down by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in a contraction range for three consecutive months since July. Historical data shows that China's export trend is closely related to this index. In addition, South Korea, which is a global trade barometer, saw its export growth rate in September at 7.5%, down by 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, and Vietnam's export growth rate in September was 8.4%, down by 7.7 percentage points from the previous month, with both countries showing a significant weakening of monthly export momentum.

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Therefore, Feng Lin believes that the slowdown in external demand may continue for some time. Behind this is that although the Federal Reserve significantly lowered interest rates in September, the restrictive effect of a long-term high-interest-rate environment on the U.S. economy is gradually becoming apparent, the economic trends in Europe and Japan continue to be weak, and the global electronics industry's upward cycle may be approaching its peak.

Export growth rates to most regions were adjusted downward in September.

Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said at the press conference that in terms of total value, this year's imports and exports for each quarter were 10.15 trillion, 11 trillion, and 11.17 trillion yuan, respectively. "Quarterly imports and exports exceeding 10 trillion yuan, and three quarters exceeding 32 trillion yuan, is a first in history for the same period."

According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China's total imports and exports were 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, of which exports were 18.62 trillion yuan, up by 6.2%; imports were 13.71 trillion yuan, up by 4.1%. Compared with the data for the first eight months, the growth rates of exports and imports contracted by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.

Customs data shows that in the first three quarters, China's trade with more than 160 countries and regions around the world achieved growth.

For example, imports and exports to countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative amounted to 15.21 trillion yuan, with a growth of 6.3%, and the proportion increased to 47.1%; imports and exports to other RCEP member countries amounted to 9.63 trillion yuan, with a growth of 4.5%, of which imports and exports to ASEAN amounted to 5.09 trillion yuan, with a growth of 9.4%. In the same period, imports and exports to the European Union and the United States were 4.18 trillion yuan and 3.59 trillion yuan, respectively, with increases of 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively.In terms of US dollars, among the 27 export destinations, 19 experienced positive growth. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while exports to the European Union (EU) and the United States grew by 0.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Exports to Russia and India increased by 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively, and exports to Latin America rose by 11.7%. In contrast, exports to Japan and South Korea decreased by 5.7% and 3.2%, respectively, and exports to Africa fell by 1.7%.

Bai Ming, a member of the Academic Degree Committee and a researcher at the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told Yicai that in general, the phenomenon of ups and downs exists in the process of the continuous growth of foreign trade. "The situation in each foreign trade market is not exactly the same, and it is in the mutual offset that the steady growth of China's foreign trade is formed."

Feng Lin analyzed that from the perspective of the main export destinations, the overall export growth rate of China slowed down in September, and the export growth rate to the main trading partners also saw a significant decline. Among them, the export growth rate to the United States in September was 2.2%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Against the background of a relatively stable base in the same period of the previous year, the decline in the export growth rate to the United States in September may be mainly due to the slowdown in the import demand in the United States and the export front-loading and other short-term factors. In September, the export growth rates to the EU and Japan were 1.3% and -7.1%, respectively, which were significantly down by 12.1 and 7.6 percentage points from the previous month, and were the main drag on the overall export growth rate for the month. In addition to the relatively high base in the same period of the previous year, the decline is mainly related to the weak economic trend of the EU and Japan, and the insufficient import demand. In addition, in July, the EU imposed additional tariffs on electric vehicles exported to China, which also had a certain impact on China's exports to Europe.

Looking at the automotive category alone, China's automobile exports reached 609,000 units in September, a slight decrease of 1,000 units from the previous month, and were at the second-highest level in history; the export volume of automobiles in September increased by 25.7% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed down by 6.9 percentage points from the previous month. Feng Lin believes that this means the overall impact of the EU's additional tariffs in July on China's automobile exports remains controllable. However, considering that the EU is an important market for China's electric vehicle exports, the subsequent impact still needs to be continuously followed.

At the same time, the export growth rate to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, was 5.5% in September, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly related to the recent slowdown in the economic growth momentum of ASEAN. In the same period, China's exports to India decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell significantly by 23.3 percentage points from the previous month.

Export growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships

Wang Lingjun said that in the first three quarters, the export product structure was optimized, and the export of high-end equipment grew by more than 40%.

Customs data show that in the first three quarters, China's mechanical and electrical product exports were 11.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value. Among them, the export of high-end equipment increased by 43.4%, and the exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and home appliances increased by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively. In addition, the export of traditional labor-intensive products was 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%.

Faced with some countries imposing additional tariffs on China's "new three items" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products), the growth rate of the "new three items" slowed down, and the export in the first three quarters was 757.83 billion yuan, accounting for 4.1% of China's total export value.

Lv Dalian proposed that at present, the global new energy industry is still in a stage of rapid development. China's exports of green and low-carbon products such as the "new three items" not only enrich the global supply and alleviate global inflationary pressures but also make a significant contribution to the global response to climate change and green transformation.According to customs data, out of the 31 major national export commodities, 17 items have achieved positive growth in export value in the first three quarters, measured in US dollars. Among them, the growth rate of export quantities for most key commodities is significantly higher than that of export values. For example, home appliances, which saw a 21.8% increase in export quantity, experienced a 13.5% increase in export value. In contrast, integrated circuits and ships showed a situation where the growth rate of export value far exceeded that of quantity—integrated circuits saw an 11% increase in export quantity and a 19.8% increase in value; ships saw a 24.6% increase in export quantity and an 81.6% increase in value.

Bai Ming believes that, in addition to changes in raw material prices, this to some extent reflects that China's industrial chains in these segmented fields are moving towards a high-end direction or a direction with greater added value.

The pressure on foreign trade is still intensifying. "There are only three months left this year, and the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe," said Wang Lingjun. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is lower than the average level of the first 20 years of this century. Major economies lack continuous growth momentum, and in September, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank lowered their respective economic growth expectations for this year by 0.1 percentage points. In addition, some countries frequently take trade restrictive measures against China's products, and some fluctuations have also appeared in domestic main economic indicators such as industry, investment, and consumption recently, which also brings certain pressure to the development of foreign trade.

In Bai Ming's view, there will not be too sudden changes in the external market in the fourth quarter. For example, no new economic policies will be introduced during the US election period, so it is expected that the development of foreign trade in the following period will be relatively stable.

Feng Lin said that looking forward, considering that the actual export base last year was relatively low, and with some short-term disturbance factors fading away, China's exports in the fourth quarter may still maintain positive growth. However, against the backdrop of slowing external demand, the risk of export decline is relatively large. It can be seen that in September, the new export order index in the official manufacturing PMI index fell to 47.5%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month and is significantly lower than the average level of 48.2% in the past 10 years.

In the long run, Bai Ming proposed that trade protectionism against China will become more and more severe, and the impact of countries such as Europe and the United States imposing tariffs on China in many fields will increasingly be reflected.

Affected by the economic downturn, Chinese foreign trade companies are not having a good time at present. "Although foreign trade has increased overall, the benefits of foreign trade are not necessarily good. Affected by the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, some foreign trade companies are facing the situation of losses under the normal state of meager profits." Therefore, Chinese companies are always trying to find business opportunities through various methods, such as using cross-border e-commerce and other new foreign trade methods, as well as opportunities brought by the China-Europe train and free trade zones, while also increasing the layout of international production capacity.

Customs data show that in the first three quarters, China's private enterprises imported and exported 17.78 trillion yuan, with a growth of 9.4%, which is 4.1 percentage points higher than the national average, and the contribution rate to the overall foreign trade growth reached 93.8%.

Wang Lingjun said that private enterprises have played an important role in promoting market diversification. This year, they have also accelerated equipment renewal and continuously "empowered" innovation. In the first three quarters, private enterprises imported various production equipment worth 203.82 billion yuan, with a growth of 31%, accounting for 51.6% of China's similar product imports; among them, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-end machine tools accounted for 67.9% and 43.7% of China's similar product imports, respectively. These innovations have also been continuously transformed into export momentum. In the first three quarters, the export of high-tech products by private enterprises increased by 14%, accounting for 52.7% of China's high-tech product exports, an increase of 4.4 percentage points. Among them, the export of ships and ocean engineering equipment, aerospace equipment, and electronic information products increased by 94%, 37.2%, and 17.5%, respectively.At the same time, private enterprises have gradually shifted from "production" to "branding" in recent years. In the first three quarters, the proportion of private brand products in the export of solar cells, lithium batteries, and textile machinery by private enterprises was as high as 83.4%, 71.7%, and 57.6%, respectively.

Lv Daliang said that a recent survey of more than 800 major export enterprises across the country showed that 69% of the enterprises reported that exports were flat or increased in the fourth quarter. In addition, according to the latest cross-border e-commerce statistical survey, in the first half of this year, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 1.25 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 13%, accounting for 5.9% of China's total import and export value, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2023. Among them, exports increased by 18.7%, and imports decreased by 3.9%. Looking at the destination, exports to the United States reached 34.2%.